Thursday, January 24, 2008

We live in interesting times

It's 2008 and we are living in interesting times. Of course, that depends whether you've got a stake on the stock market or involved in the financial market. If you are a doctor or an engineer or whatever other profession with no bloody idea about financial market or where the economy is heading, you might reply "What interesting time? You mean there is a new programme on the TV?"

Anyway, I have been following the news lately and this is what happened:

On Tuesday (22 January 08) during lunch, just when I was finishing my sandwich on my table in front of my computer, news came in that the Feds (it's not some dude name Fed. It's the US Federal Reserve) made a 0.75% cut in interest rate from 4.25% to 3.5% to boost the ailing global stock market. Here is the news. Before the announcement, Bursa Malaysia composite index closed with 54 points lower as most of the stocks took a beating as a result of negative market sentiment towards the possibility of a US recession. So, I would have assumed that if any of you have any shares on Bursa Malaysia that day, you might have had your jaws dropped and shed some hairs as a result of the under pressure caused by the market. In any case, the market bounced back after the Thaipusam holiday on 24 January 08 taking into the effect of the Fed's rate cut.

"What is so interesting about the rate cut? Does it affect you?" one of my friend asked when I told him the latest development even before finished my sandwich.

As I've said earlier, the rate cut wouldn't be interesting if you are not involve in the financial market or you just don't give a hoot about the economy so long as your employer continue to feed you with monthly salary so you can go home and watch your television/ porn on your big fat ass over a couple of beers. It affects me in a way because I am involved in the financial market. I took interest because it affects the economy and it commands my future earning and ability to spend (so is yours and anyone in the world). So, just because you are in another country, it doesn't mean you are not affected.

Anyway, the rate cut was only short lived in Europe and it didn't stop the fall on Wall Street on that day itself. Probably traders panicked due to the large cut. It was indeed a big rate cut, biggest cut in 26 years. The sudden rate cut seems to suggest that the Fed panicked. Panicked enough to go onto the offensive.

So why is it we are living in interesting times?

It's interesting because the world have changed so much since I was wearing diapers. When I started schooling, Black Monday came into the picture. When I was starting to leave high school and move on to college, the Asian Financial Crisis came and it became my case study in school. When I graduate from university, dot com companies came crashing down and I ran into a little trouble getting a job. Last year there was credit crunch thankfully I've still got a job. I have lived through and witness from one crisis to another and I am already drawing to the third decade of my life. Looks like there is more to come. Anything could have happened.

That's why we are living in an interesting time. Anything could have happened and the probability for that is much higher compared to our parent's time. The world continues to evolve and we get surprises once in a few years. Who would have thought there would be a credit crunch? Who would have thought that US Fed led a big rate cut when I was just enjoying my sandwich during lunch? Who would have thought that a rouge trader could send French Bank Societe Generale a loss of £3.7 billion? (which makes the legendary rouge trader Nick Leeson - with loss of £0.8 billion - look like an amateur).

Like I've said, we are living in interesting times. Anything could have happened.


Additional notes: This morning's news (25 Jan 08) seems to suggest that the rouge trader from Societe Generale may have possibly contributed to the stock market crash on 21 January 08 (when the bank decide to dump the shares onto the market to reduce losses arising from the fraud when detected over the weekend). If that is true, Nick Leeson (who brought Barings Bank down) is nothing compare to this rouge trader who brought the entire stock market down.

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